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The Job Search Death Spiral: Why 95% of Job Seekers Are Fighting Over 5% of Opportunities
A bad job market is about to get worse. But there is a way to prepare.
Just finished reading the latest on the job market.
And let me tell you—bad is about to get worse.
The market’s already rough.
Now? We’re staring down another level of slowdown.
Companies are freezing up.
Hiring pipelines? Drying faster than ever.
Not great.
Instead of waiting for Sunday’s usual newsletter, I’m dropping this now.
Why? Two reasons:
You deserve to know what’s really happening.
I want to give you a plan forward.
So here’s the “extra” edition.
Sunday’s issue still drops like normal.
But this one? This couldn’t wait.
The Job Search Death Spiral: Why 95% of Job Seekers Are Fighting Over 5% of Opportunities

It now takes the average worker 24 weeks to land a new job—nearly a month longer than just a year ago. Six months of firing off applications into the void. Six months of silence, rejection, or automated emails dressed up as empathy. And while you’re grinding away, so are millions of others, all clinging to the same broken playbook.
The numbers don’t lie. One in five U.S. employers is slowing hiring in the back half of 2025. Meanwhile, 3.7 million white-collar layoffs in 2024 came packaged with record-breaking profits.
You’re not bad at job hunting. You’re playing by rules that don’t exist anymore.
The Employer’s Dilemma: Every Hire Must Be Flawless
Step into an employer’s office for a minute. Budgets are locked behind AI mandates. One hiring manager admitted, “I can’t get any headcount approved until I show we’ve implemented X amount of AI first.”
So when Kristen Habacht, CEO of Elly, says, “When you’re hiring 2 instead of 10, those 2 better be perfect,” she’s not exaggerating.
The Conference Board’s Q2 2025 survey tells the same story: just 36% of CHROs expect to add jobs. One in five is planning cuts. And half are investing in change management—a corporate euphemism for bracing for chaos.
Factor in tariffs gutting manufacturing and workplace raids hammering immigrant-heavy industries, plus companies like Meta and Novo Nordisk hitting pause. The message is clear: the window is closing, and the lock’s about to click shut.
The Recruiter’s Crossfire
Recruiters are cornered. Budgets slashed, standards raised, and expectations weaponized. They’re tasked with finding “perfect” candidates in a market where “perfect” doesn’t exist.
Saurabh Shah is blunt: “Talent acquisition should be seen as an integral business partner, not a second-class function.” But reality doesn’t care.
Instead, job seekers hit “Apply” on roles that never existed. Ghost jobs pollute job boards, sucking up hours of hope. Meanwhile, candidates are told they’re impressive—just not impressive enough—for jobs paying $15 an hour.
The Job Seeker’s Nightmare
Scroll through LinkedIn and the desperation bleeds through the screen. Joel Barr, a UX Producer, summed it up: “10 months looking—how much more space do you want me to give?”
Or Amelia Costigan’s story: friends laid off because tariffs strangled supply chains. Furloughs turned to cuts. Families gutted.
Veterans aren’t spared. Aaron Harper reports stagnation across the board.
And then there’s the gaslighting. Jacob Morgan painted slow hiring as “smart strategy”. The unemployed answered back. Javier Dubois: “Sure, easy to call it smart when you’ve already got a paycheck.”
Executives talk “strategy.” Job seekers talk rent. Food. Healthcare. Reality.
The Death Spiral
Here’s the math: millions of candidates chasing fewer roles with the same tactics. Apply. Wait. Repeat. Employers drown in noise. Standards rise. Rejections multiply. Candidates double down, feeding the same broken loop.
It’s a tragedy of the commons. Everyone acting rationally, everyone losing collectively.
And AI is pouring gasoline on the fire. 95% of corporate AI pilots fail, yet companies cling to them. Candidates unleash bots to blast “personalized” resumes at scale. Noise on top of noise.
As Nic Mahaney joked: “At least candidates aren’t using AI to apply to thousands of jobs…” Except they are.
The New Rules: Survive by Standing Out
This isn’t about working harder. Harder just digs the hole deeper. This is about flipping the script.
As Lars Schmidt says, companies aren’t hiring to grow—they’re optimizing to survive.
That means you need to stop being another resume in the pile and start being the obvious choice.
Personal Branding: Don’t just claim expertise—broadcast it. Build a presence that works before you walk in the door.
Strategic Positioning: Own a niche nobody else is covering. As Kelly Reeves put it: “Become your own boss.” Companies would rather contract than commit.
Content Strategy: Don’t beg for attention—earn it. Publish insights that solve real problems. Draw opportunity to you.
This is the pivot: from job seeker to fixer, from applicant to advisor, from replaceable to rare.
As Marina Rake noted: “Rather than shotgunning resumes, spend more time chasing quality roles you’d actually want.”
Your Next Move
The average job search now lasts half a year. Hiring expectations keep dropping. Companies are bracing for storms, not calm waters.
So you’ve got two options. Keep grinding away like everyone else. Or admit the old game is dead and start playing the new one.
This market doesn’t reward effort. It rewards strategy. Differentiation. Presence. Scarcity.
Blend in, and you’ll drown with the rest. Stand out, and you’ve got a shot.
The traditional job search is broken. But broken systems are where new players win.
Because in a market this unforgiving, blending in isn’t survival—it’s suicide.