The job market isn’t broken. It’s quieter — and more selective.
Hiring hasn’t stopped. It’s narrowed.
What the 2026 data actually says (and why panic is the wrong move): 👇

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The HR Blotter

The Hidden Costs of Letting AI Run Recruiting - Companies are discovering that artificial intelligence is not simplifying hiring so much as rearranging the mess. The tools promise speed and efficiency, but in practice they are introducing new risks around bias, legal exposure, and decision making that HR teams are still learning to manage. In the world of work, this is a reminder that automating hiring does not remove accountability, it just shifts where mistakes show up and who gets blamed for them.

Layoff Warnings Are Spiking Before the Cuts Begin - Mass layoff warnings in the U.S. have climbed to their highest level in more than a decade, signaling that companies are preparing for cuts even if the broader economy looks stable on paper. These notices do not mean layoffs are guaranteed, but they reveal how cautious employers have become as costs rise and growth slows. In the world of work, this is what defensive planning looks like when leaders would rather brace early than be caught reacting too late.

What Student Loan Data Reveals About Work After Graduation - Women still hold a larger share of U.S. student loan debt, but the story is less about reckless borrowing and more about what happens after graduation. They are more likely to take on loans to get degrees, then enter a job market that pays less, offers slower raises, and stretches repayment timelines. In the world of work, student debt becomes less a personal finance issue and more a reflection of how compensation and career paths differ once real jobs begin.

Robotaxis Are Creating the Very Jobs They Were Supposed to Eliminate - Waymo is paying people up to $22 an hour to manually close robotaxi doors when the autonomous vehicles get stuck and block traffic. The fix is low tech and human, exposing the gap between flashy automation promises and messy real world execution. In the world of work, this is a reminder that automation often creates new kinds of jobs at the edges, not fewer jobs overall, and they are usually less glamorous than the pitch decks suggested.

Raises Are Up and Workers Still Feel Broke - Paychecks are rising on paper, but the cost of living is rising faster, leaving many workers feeling poorer even when they get raises. The article shows how housing, healthcare, and everyday expenses are quietly erasing salary gains across much of the U.S. In the world of work, this disconnect explains why morale is low, loyalty is thin, and more employees are questioning whether staying put actually moves them forward.

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The Jim Stroud Podcast

Not subscribed to The Jim Stroud Podcast? Then you’ve been flying blind. Here’s a taste of what they’ve been hearing—while you’ve been missing it.

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The Job Market Isn’t Broken. It’s Just Not Doing Anyone Any Favors

If you’re a job seeker right now — or a recruiter wondering whether the profession still wants you — let’s start here:

You’re not imagining things.

The market feels colder. Quieter. Less forgiving. Roles sit open. Interviews drag. Feedback disappears. And every week it feels like someone else announces a layoff, a pivot, or a “strategic pause.”

That anxiety is rational.

But here’s the part that isn’t getting enough airtime: the job market isn’t collapsing. It’s cooling and re-sorting.

Most credible forecasts for 2026 point to continued job growth, just slower and more selective. Unemployment is expected to land between 4.4% and 4.8% — a far cry from the white-hot 2022–2023 market, but nowhere near recession territory.

Economists have a phrase for this phase: “low-hire, low-fire.” Companies aren’t adding headcount recklessly — but they’re not slashing it either.

That nuance matters.

Because what’s happening now isn’t mass job destruction. It’s precision hiring.

Employers are still hiring where they have to. Healthcare and social assistance continue to lead job creation, driven by demographics that don’t care about market sentiment.

AI-adjacent roles, cybersecurity, cloud, and data work remain resilient — not hype hiring, but operational, keep-the-lights-on work.

So do construction, infrastructure, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing — especially semiconductors — backed by long-term public and private investment that doesn’t turn off overnight.

Wages tell the same story. U.S. employers are projecting average wage growth of about 3.3% in 2026 — cooler than the post-pandemic surge, but stable and predictable.

So why does it feel brutal?

Because generalist roles and entry-level jobs are crowded, and employers suddenly have time to be picky again. AI-driven productivity gains, trade uncertainty, and immigration constraints are all pulling hiring plans inward.

For job seekers — including recruiters — the takeaway isn’t despair. It’s adjustment.

This market rewards people who can show:

• Skills that solve current business problems

• Outcomes, not just job descriptions

• Comfort working with AI and automation, not around it

And for recruiters specifically: this isn’t the death of TA. It’s a reset. The data points toward skills-based hiring, AI-enabled recruiting, and precision sourcing replacing volume-driven requisition growth.

The jobs haven’t disappeared.

They’ve narrowed.

And while that’s uncomfortable — it’s also navigable.

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One more thing before I go…

Okay, 2 things…

If recruiting is your game, you’ll want The Recruiting Radar on your radar. Monthly intel on who’s about to hire—and what’s driving it. January reports are free, no strings attached, just a preview of what’s coming next.

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And as always, hit reply and let me know how I’m doing. Or slide into my DMs as the kids say. All good.

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